Top four race: We assess the form and fixtures as Man United, Arsenal, Spurs, Saints & Liverpool do battle

It's all getting very tight at the top of the Premier League.

OK, not right at the top, but that rung below. Chelsea and Manchester City look almost certain to occupy first and second place in the Premier League come the end of the season but there is a battle royale developing for the final two Champions League spots.

After Liverpool's victory over Southampton on Sunday, five teams – from Arsenal in third to Spurs in seventh – are separated by just four points:

Something has got to give. With 12 games of the season left, we assess the form and fixtures of the contenders. We've also worked out the average league position of each side's remaining opponents, which should give a rough indication of how tough their run-ins are:

Arsenal

Current position: Third
Points: 48
Average league position of remaining opponents: 10.9
Toughest games remaining: Chelsea (H), Man United (A)

Reasons to believe

Arsene Wenger has been here before on countless occasions and always seem to guide the ship to harbour. With Mesut Ozil back, Theo Walcott building up fitness and Olivier Giroud coming into some form, the Gunners look capable of scoring against anyone. If they can reproduce the defensive solidity they displayed against Manchester City last month in the big games, they should be well set.

Reasons to doubt

With their last 16 tie against Monaco eminently winnable, Wenger might just fancy a run to the latter stages of the Champions League. That would delight fans, of course, but might but harm Arsenal's league form; after all, this is a side that has never been averse to a post-European-game slip. There are also lingering worries over the fragility of the defence.

Manchester United

Current position: Fourth
Points: 47
Average league position of remaining opponents: 9.9
Toughest games remaining: Man City (H), Chelsea (A)

Reasons to believe

Say what you will about United's fluency this season, but they do not lack players capable of winning games. While Angel Di Maria, Wayne Rooney, Juan Mata and Robin van Persie have not hit the heights on a regular basis, they can all win matches single-handedly. Plus there's David De Gea.

Reasons to doubt

Where to begin? Van Gaal doesn't appear to be able to find a system that suits all of his players, many of whom seem inhibited on the field, favouring simple passes over dribbles and through balls. Van Persie isn't scoring, Di Maria's form has fallen off a cliff and the less said about Radamel Falcao the better. Still, at least the defence is rock-solid. Oh no, wait...

Southampton

Current position: Fifth
Points: 46
Average league position of remaining opponents: 12.3
Toughest games remaining: Chelsea (A), Man City (A)

Reasons to believe

Our rudimentary calculations suggest that Ronald Koeman's side have the easiest run-in of the seven sides, which will come as good news given their patchy recent form. Southampton's home fixtures look especially welcoming, with Crystal Palace, Burnley, Hull and Aston Villa pitching up at St Mary's in the coming weeks. Then there is their stingy backline: Saints have conceded just 19 goals all season – far fewer than all of the other top-four contenders.

Reasons to doubt

The attacking verve that characterised their fine start to the season has faded markedly, with Dusan Tadic and Graziano Pelle going through quiet patches. Sadio Mane has taken up some of the slack but Koeman desperately needs another forward – Shane Long, perhaps, or new signing Filip Djuricic – to start contributing. Away fixtures against Chelsea and Man City also look daunting.

Liverpool

Current position: Sixth
Points: 45
Average league position of remaining opponents: 9.8
Toughest game remaining: Arsenal (A), Chelsea (A)

Reasons to believe

The form book doesn't lie: the Reds have lost just one game since November and have accrued 23 points from the last 27 available. With Daniel Sturridge back, Raheem Sterling rested and Jordon Ibe beginning to make waves, there is a conviction at Anfield that their early-season travails are a thing of the past. That kind of confidence will go a long way, even if their remaining fixtures are relatively tricky.

Reasons to doubt

Mario Balotelli may have broken his Premier League duck but cannot be relied upon for goals, meaning Liverpool remain dependent on Sturridge in the final third. If he were to break down again, Brendan Rodgers' find may find themselves short on firepower. Plus there are extra-curricular interests: Liverpool are still in the Europa League and the FA Cup... and you can bet that the latter will be a priority as one Steven Gerrard eyes a killer finale.

Tottenham

Current position: Seventh
Points: 44
Average league position of remaining opponents: 11.8
Toughest game remaining: Man United (A), Man City (H)

Reasons to believe

Harry Kane. Harry Kane. Harry Kane. What else? Well, Christian Eriksen is playing well and Nabil Bentaleb is maturing into a central midfielder of real talent. Then there is the fitness of the squad: Mauricio Pochettino's men have made a habit of scoring late into game when their opponents tire. Oh and Harry Kane. Did we mention him?

Reasons to doubt

There may be some hangover if next weekend's League Cup final against Chelsea goes to plan, while the Europa League is another distraction (although Fiorentina could change that on Thursday). With Nacer Chadli's form having faded, there is also the worry that Spurs are over-reliant on Kane and Eriksen, with neither Erik Lamela nor Andros Townsend especially impressive of late. The defence is hardly the most convincing either.

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